Helmond Sport vs Willem II match stats & report

Helmond Sport vs Willem II match statistics

• 41% Ball possession 59%
• 13 Total shots 13
• 5 Shots on target 4
• 7 Shots off target 7
• 1 Blocked shots 2
• 10 Shots inside the box 10
• 1 Corners 1
• 7 Fouls 12
• 4 Offsides 1
• 2 Yellow cards 2
• 0 Red cards 1
• 394 Passes 565
• 84% Pass accuracy 86%
• 0 Goalkeeper saves 2

Goals and cards

1. 2' Yellow card B. Koglin Helmond Sport
2. 9' Goal M. Ludwig (assist T. Essakkati) Helmond Sport
3. 28' Goal D. Haen (assist E. Gürbüz) Willem II
4. 40' Goal E. Gürbüz (assist F. Stam) Willem II
5. 42' Goal E. Gürbüz (assist D. Haen) Willem II
6. 53' Goal T. Vilhena (assist H. ter Avest) Willem II
7. 62' Yellow card E. Gürbüz Willem II
8. 72' Goal L. Bajrami (assist M. Ludwig) Helmond Sport
9. 73' Yellow card M. Lemmens Willem II
10. 73' Yellow card Joep van der Sluijs Helmond Sport
11. 78' Red card J. Slory Willem II
12. 85' Goal L. Bajrami Helmond Sport

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Willem II to score about 0.6 more.

High confidence — Fitted on 5328 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Helmond Sport has a new coach, Frédéric Frans, for its last 5 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Willem II has a new coach, A. Koster, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Helmond Sport attack scores 10% less than average, against Willem II defence, which lets in 33% fewer than average: 1.27 goals (an average side here: 2.10)
• Willem II attack scores 11% more than average, against Helmond Sport defence, which lets in 14% fewer than average: 1.70 goals (an average side here: 1.78)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Helmond Sport 1.20, Willem II 1.76.

Ratings from 117 matches for Helmond Sport and 123 for Willem II, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Helmond Sport win 1 corner a game — 3rd percentile in this competition.
• Willem II win 2.1 corners a game — 16th percentile in this competition.
• Helmond Sport have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.4%
2. 1–2 9.6%
3. 0–2 8.0%
4. 0–1 7.7%
5. 2–1 6.6%
6. 0–0 6.6%
7. 2–2 5.8%
8. 1–3 5.7%