Castellonense vs Almeria result

Goals and cards

1. 60' Yellow card Léo Baptistão Almeria
2. 71' Yellow card P. Ferriz Castellonense
3. 90' Yellow card Castellonense
4. 93' Goal A. Murillo (assist M. Lachevre) Castellonense
5. 101' Yellow card C. Badal Andani Castellonense
6. 110' Yellow card Javi Muñoz Almeria
7. 112' Goal Thalys (assist Álex Sola) Almeria
8. 120+2' Red card D. Castella Castellonense
9. 120+2' Penalty scored Sergio Arribas Almeria

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Almeria to score about 1.3 more.

High confidence — Fitted on 26915 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-2 (11%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Almeria has a new coach, Xavier García Pimienta, for its last 5 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Castellonense attack scores 18% more than average, against Almeria defence, which lets in 47% fewer than average: 1.07 goals (an average side here: 1.71)
• Almeria attack scores 143% more than average, against Castellonense defence, which lets in 33% fewer than average: 2.09 goals (an average side here: 1.29)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Castellonense 0.93, Almeria 2.23.

Ratings from 106 matches for Castellonense and 136 for Almeria, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Almeria win 2.8 corners a game — 11th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 2 of Almeria’s last 10.
• Castellonense have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–2 10.6%
2. 1–1 10.0%
3. 1–2 9.8%
4. 0–1 8.3%
5. 0–3 7.8%
6. 1–3 7.3%
7. 0–0 5.4%
8. 2–2 4.6%