Sestao River vs Espanyol match stats & report

Sestao River vs Espanyol match statistics

• 38% Ball possession 62%
• 15 Total shots 16
• 7 Shots on target 6
• 7 Shots off target 7
• 1 Blocked shots 3
• 9 Shots inside the box 13
• 7 Corners 12
• 19 Fouls 24
• 1 Offsides 1
• 2 Yellow cards 4
• 269 Passes 455
• 52% Pass accuracy 70%
• 2 Goalkeeper saves 5

Goals and cards

1. 6' Penalty scored Marcos Fernández Espanyol
2. 8' Yellow card Javier Hernandez Espanyol
3. 17' Yellow card T. Dolan Espanyol
4. 18' Goal Adri Carrión (assist Eneko Delgado Ginés) Sestao River
5. 30' Yellow card Josemi Castañeda Sestao River
6. 40' Goal Andoni Ugarte (assist Eneko Delgado Ginés) Sestao River
7. 78' Yellow card Edu Expósito Espanyol
8. 89' Yellow card T. Asiku Sestao River
9. 90' Penalty scored Roberto Fernández Espanyol
10. 96' Goal Gabriel Moscardo (assist B. Zaragoza) Espanyol
11. 98' Goal Ander Laka (assist Pau Miguélez) Sestao River
12. 110' Yellow card O. El Hilali Espanyol
13. 120+1' Goal Jon Rojo Sestao River

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Espanyol to score about 0.8 more.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-1 (14%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Sestao River has a new coach, Angel Viadero, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Sestao River attack scores 10% more than average, against Espanyol defence, which lets in 56% fewer than average: 0.83 goals (an average side here: 1.71)
• Espanyol attack scores 87% more than average, against Sestao River defence, which lets in 40% fewer than average: 1.46 goals (an average side here: 1.29)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Sestao River 0.75, Espanyol 1.54.

Ratings from 111 matches for Sestao River and 127 for Espanyol, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Sestao River win 7 corners a game — 95th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 8 of Espanyol’s last 10.
• Espanyol win 4.7 corners a game — 74th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–1 14.1%
2. 1–1 13.2%
3. 0–2 12.0%
4. 0–0 11.7%
5. 1–2 9.0%
6. 0–3 6.2%
7. 1–0 6.1%
8. 1–3 4.6%