Calamocha vs Europa Fc result

Goals and cards

1. 6' Yellow card Calamocha
2. 9' Yellow card Calamocha
3. 24' Goal Y. Zayzoun Europa Fc
4. 58' Yellow card Calamocha
5. 74' Goal Europa Fc
6. 74' Yellow card Calamocha
7. 81' Goal Europa Fc
8. 81' Yellow card Calamocha
9. 87' Yellow card Europa Fc

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Europa Fc to score about 1.3 more.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-2 (13%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Europa Fc has a new coach, Aday Benitez, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Calamocha attack scores 27% less than average, against Europa Fc defence, which lets in 30% fewer than average: 0.88 goals (an average side here: 1.71)
• Europa Fc attack scores 48% more than average, against Calamocha defence, which lets in about the average: 1.90 goals (an average side here: 1.29)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Calamocha 0.75, Europa Fc 2.03.

Ratings from 103 matches for Calamocha and 114 for Europa Fc, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Calamocha score 0.9 a game — 10th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 3 of Calamocha’s last 10.
• Europa Fc score 0.9 a game — 31st percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–2 12.8%
2. 0–1 11.4%
3. 1–1 10.7%
4. 1–2 9.6%
5. 0–3 8.7%
6. 0–0 7.4%
7. 1–3 6.5%
8. 0–4 4.4%