Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag result

Goals and cards

1. 45+2' Goal M. Schrijver Excelsior '31
2. 51' Yellow card S. ter Haar Excelsior '31
3. 57' Goal N. Thomas (assist J. Žambůrek) ADO Den Haag
4. 93' Yellow card M. Schrijver Excelsior '31
5. 94' Yellow card J. Kilo ADO Den Haag
6. 105' Yellow card D. van Mieghem ADO Den Haag

Penalty shoot-out: 6–5

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects ADO Den Haag to score about 2.1 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 5338 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-2 (10%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Excelsior '31 attack scores 23% less than average, against ADO Den Haag defence, which lets in 36% fewer than average: 1.04 goals (an average side here: 2.10)
• ADO Den Haag attack scores 35% more than average, against Excelsior '31 defence, which lets in 12% more than average: 2.69 goals (an average side here: 1.78)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Excelsior '31 0.84, ADO Den Haag 2.89.

Ratings from 88 matches for Excelsior '31 and 123 for ADO Den Haag, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Excelsior '31 score 2.6 a game — 92nd percentile in this competition.
• ADO Den Haag have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• ADO Den Haag win 2.8 corners a game — 24th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–2 10.0%
2. 0–3 9.7%
3. 1–2 8.4%
4. 1–3 8.1%
5. 0–4 7.0%
6. 1–1 6.6%
7. 0–1 6.2%
8. 1–4 5.9%