Alanyaspor vs 12 Bingölspor result

Goals and cards

1. 1' Goal Hwang Ui-Jo Alanyaspor
2. 6' Goal Omar Ben Ali (assist M. Elia) Alanyaspor
3. 65' Goal B. Sarka 12 Bingölspor
4. 77' Goal Iván Cédric (assist M. Elia) Alanyaspor
5. 90+1' Goal Yusuf Özdemir (assist Ibrahim Kaya) Alanyaspor

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Alanyaspor to score about 1.1 more and playing at home is worth roughly 23% in this competition.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 7287 matches, with no market price to check against.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.23× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 2-0 (11%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• 12 Bingölspor has a new coach, C. Tiryaki, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Alanyaspor attack scores 34% more than average, against 12 Bingölspor defence, which lets in 17% fewer than average: 1.89 goals (an average side here: 1.71)
• 12 Bingölspor attack scores 14% more than average, against Alanyaspor defence, which lets in 37% fewer than average: 1.00 goals (an average side here: 1.39)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Alanyaspor 2.01, 12 Bingölspor 0.88.

Ratings from 122 matches for Alanyaspor and 42 for 12 Bingölspor, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Alanyaspor win 5.3 corners a game — 89th percentile in this competition.
• Alanyaspor score 2.1 a game — 83rd percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 7 of Alanyaspor’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–0 11.2%
2. 1–1 11.1%
3. 2–1 9.9%
4. 1–0 9.9%
5. 3–0 7.5%
6. 0–0 6.8%
7. 3–1 6.6%
8. 2–2 4.4%