Rot-Weiß Essen vs RB Leipzig match stats & report
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Rot-Weiß Essen stats & fixtures · RB Leipzig stats & fixtures
Rot-Weiß Essen lost to RB Leipzig 1–2 in the DFB Pokal (Round of 32) on 27 October 2026. Expected goals finished 1.38–2.33. RB Leipzig had 63% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Rot-Weiß Essen 8%, the draw 14% and RB Leipzig 79%.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs RB Leipzig match statistics
- 37% Ball possession 63%
- 1.38 Expected goals (xG) 2.33
- 9 Total shots 11
- 1 Shots on target 2
- 6 Shots off target 4
- 2 Blocked shots 5
- 6 Shots inside the box 9
- 5 Corners 7
- 15 Fouls 10
- 2 Offsides 2
- 2 Yellow cards 3
- 0 Red cards 1
- 300 Passes 516
- 0 Goalkeeper saves 0
Goals and cards
- 9' Goal L. Brumme Rot-Weiß Essen
- 23' Yellow card D. Abiama Rot-Weiß Essen
- 34' Yellow card N. Seiwald RB Leipzig
- 44' Red card N. Seiwald RB Leipzig
- 73' Yellow card C. Baumgartner RB Leipzig
- 76' Yellow card N. El Aynaoui RB Leipzig
- 77' Yellow card N. Bätzner Rot-Weiß Essen
- 78' Goal C. Baumgartner (assist A. Nusa) RB Leipzig
- 82' Yellow card RB Leipzig
- 82' Goal C. Baumgartner (assist D. Raum) RB Leipzig
- 90+5' Yellow card O. Nyland RB Leipzig
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: RB Leipzig to win, 79% before kick-off
- 8%Rot-Weiß Essen fair odds 12.86
- 14%Draw fair odds 7.32
- 79%RB Leipzig fair odds 1.27
Most likely score 0-3 (8.5%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects RB Leipzig to score about 2.1 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 5852 matches.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Rot-Weiß Essen
Attack 1.17 · Defence 0.79
Last five: WLWDD, scored 8, conceded 6
RB Leipzig
Attack 2.10 · Defence 0.49
Last five: WLLWW, scored 13, conceded 10
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last meeting: Rot-Weiß Essen won 0, 0 drawn, RB Leipzig won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 0-3 (8%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
Nothing unusual behind these numbers.
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Rot-Weiß Essen attack scores 17% more than average, against RB Leipzig defence, which lets in 51% fewer than average: 1.18 goals (an average side here: 2.05)
- RB Leipzig attack scores 110% more than average, against Rot-Weiß Essen defence, which lets in 21% fewer than average: 2.88 goals (an average side here: 1.74)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Rot-Weiß Essen 0.97, RB Leipzig 3.09.
Ratings from 117 matches for Rot-Weiß Essen and 111 for RB Leipzig, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Rot-Weiß Essen win 6.3 corners a game — 73rd percentile in this competition.
- Rot-Weiß Essen score 2.1 a game — 73rd percentile in this competition.
- RB Leipzig score 1.5 a game — 28th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 98% | 1.02 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 38% | 2.61 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 2% | 41.79 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 8% | 12.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23% | 4.36 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.37 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 62% | 1.62 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| Both teams to score: No | 40% | 2.50 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 0–3 8.5%
- 0–2 8.2%
- 1–3 8.2%
- 1–2 8.0%
- 0–4 6.6%
- 1–4 6.4%
- 1–1 5.8%
- 0–1 4.7%
Team news & lineups
Rot-Weiß Essen
Bench N. Bätzner , L. Bazzoli , E. Çelebi , J. Gnagnon , Eric Verstappen, F. Wienand , F Vasic, Rami Malaeb
RB Leipzig
Bench N. El Aynaoui , C. Baumgartner , J. Bakayoko , A. Nusa , Max Finkgräfe , B. Gruda , B. Henrichs , A. Kone , Maarten Vandevoordt
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Rot-Weiß Essen at home
7–1–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.1 per game
- Conceded
- 0.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- Corners
- 6.3 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.7 per game
40% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
RB Leipzig away
3–0–7 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.5 per game
- Conceded
- 2.5 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 5.9 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.6 per game
60% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs RB Leipzig head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Rot-Weiß Essen v RB Leipzig | 1–4 |
Only 1 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 97% | 1.03 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 95% | 1.05 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 92% | 1.08 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 92% | 1.08 |
| Home/Away double chance | 86% | 1.16 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 81% | 1.23 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 79% | 1.27 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 62% | 1.61 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 61% | 1.65 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 60% | 1.67 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 39% | 2.55 |
| Away clean sheet | 38% | 2.64 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 25% | 3.95 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 21% | 4.66 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 21% | 4.66 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 8% | 12.86 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 7% | 13.36 |
| Home clean sheet | 5% | 22.02 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 3% | 37.65 |