VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 match stats & report

VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 match statistics

• 48% Ball possession 52%
• 1.44 Expected goals (xG) 0.52
• 8 Total shots 9
• 3 Shots on target 5
• 5 Shots off target 3
• 0 Blocked shots 1
• 7 Shots inside the box 5
• 5 Corners 6
• 13 Fouls 5
• 0 Offsides 1
• 3 Yellow cards 1
• 0 Red cards 0
• 443 Passes 467
• 5 Goalkeeper saves 1

Goals and cards

1. 46' Goal C. Rasmussen (assist G. Holtmann) VfL Bochum
2. 64' Yellow card R. Königsdörffer FSV Mainz 05
3. 66' Yellow card T. Meyer VfL Bochum
4. 75' Goal P. Hofmann (assist J. Steuckers) VfL Bochum
5. 90+6' Yellow card L. Isbruch VfL Bochum
6. 90+7' Yellow card S. Klaiber VfL Bochum

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects FSV Mainz 05 to score about 0.7 more.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 5852 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.18× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: VfL Bochum won 0, 1 drawn, FSV Mainz 05 won 5. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• VfL Bochum attack scores 8% more than average, against FSV Mainz 05 defence, which lets in 48% fewer than average: 1.15 goals (an average side here: 2.05)
• FSV Mainz 05 attack scores 59% more than average, against VfL Bochum defence, which lets in 38% fewer than average: 1.71 goals (an average side here: 1.74)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on VfL Bochum 1.07, FSV Mainz 05 1.79.

Ratings from 109 matches for VfL Bochum and 106 for FSV Mainz 05, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• FSV Mainz 05 score 4.7 a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• VfL Bochum score 1 a game — 5th percentile in this competition.
• FSV Mainz 05 have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.4%
2. 1–2 9.8%
3. 0–2 9.2%
4. 0–1 8.9%
5. 0–0 7.2%
6. 2–1 5.9%
7. 1–3 5.8%
8. 0–3 5.5%