Bulgaria vs Luxembourg match stats & report
1–2 Full time
Bulgaria stats & fixtures · Luxembourg stats & fixtures
Bulgaria lost to Luxembourg 1–2 in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 1) on 26 September 2026. Bulgaria had 52% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Bulgaria 45%, the draw 31% and Luxembourg 24%.
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg match statistics
- 52% Ball possession 48%
- 10 Total shots 15
- 7 Shots on target 7
- 3 Shots off target 4
- 0 Blocked shots 4
- 6 Shots inside the box 11
- 5 Corners 4
- 10 Fouls 17
- 3 Offsides 2
- 2 Yellow cards 2
- 0 Red cards 0
- 414 Passes 421
- 5 Goalkeeper saves 6
Goals and cards
- 18' Goal A. Chandarov (assist D. Velkovski) Bulgaria
- 28' Yellow card L. Petkov Bulgaria
- 35' Yellow card E. Tsenov Bulgaria
- 37' Goal L. Barreiro Luxembourg
- 45+2' Yellow card J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz Luxembourg
- 65' Goal V. Thill Luxembourg
- 83' Yellow card D. Carlson Luxembourg
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 45%Bulgaria fair odds 2.22
- 31%Draw fair odds 3.19
- 24%Luxembourg fair odds 4.24
Most likely score 1-1 (14.5%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 88% | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.59 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 5.33 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 8% | 13.10 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 12% | 8.09 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 33% | 3.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 81% | 1.23 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 92% | 1.08 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 45% | 2.20 |
| Both teams to score: No | 55% | 1.83 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.5
Bulgaria 4.2 · Luxembourg 4.3
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 7.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 8.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 9.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 10.5 | 24% | 76% |
Expected cards: 4.1
Bulgaria 1.9 · Luxembourg 2.2
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 4.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 5.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 6.5 | 13% | 87% |
Expected shots on target: 7.4
Bulgaria 4.0 · Luxembourg 3.4
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 6.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 7.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 8.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 9.5 | 22% | 78% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (4392 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 14.5%
- 1–0 12.6%
- 0–0 12.4%
- 2–0 9.5%
- 2–1 8.6%
- 0–1 8.0%
- 1–2 5.8%
- 0–2 4.3%
Team news & lineups
Bulgaria
Bench D. Mitov , A. Bozhev , M. Petkov , Kristiyan Balov , A. Hristov , S. Ivanov , A. Kraev , M. Minchev , K. Stoyanov , Y. Stoyanov , S. Velkov , Petko Panayotov
Luxembourg
Bench M. Martins , M. Olesen , T. Pereira Cardoso , T. Rupil , Vahid Selimović , S. Thill , E. Veiga , Jayson Videira Pereira , E. Džogović , L. Fox , M. Goncalves , O. Natami
Form guide
Bulgaria at home
1–1–3 in 5 matches
- Scored
- 0.8 per game
- Conceded
- 2.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 5
- Corners
- 4.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.5 per game
Based on 5 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Luxembourg away
3–0–4 in 7 matches
- Scored
- 0.7 per game
- Conceded
- 1.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 7
- Corners
- 2.7 per game
- Shots on target
- 2.8 per game
20% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 7 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg v Bulgaria | 0–1 | |
| Bulgaria v Luxembourg | 0–0 | |
| Luxembourg v Bulgaria | 0–0 | |
| Luxembourg v Bulgaria | 1–1 | |
| Bulgaria v Luxembourg | 4–3 |
Only 5 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 39% | 2.59 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 22% | 4.54 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 15% | 6.63 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 45% | 2.22 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 74% | 1.36 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 76% | 1.31 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 76% | 1.31 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 23% | 4.39 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 59% | 1.68 |
| Home/Away double chance | 69% | 1.46 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 78% | 1.28 |
| Home clean sheet | 41% | 2.46 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 91% | 1.09 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 55% | 1.82 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 55% | 1.82 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 24% | 4.24 |
| Away clean sheet | 26% | 3.80 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 6% | 15.88 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 9% | 11.69 |