Iceland vs Estonia match stats & report
1–1 Full time
Iceland drew with Estonia 1–1 in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 1) on 26 September 2026. Iceland had 63% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Iceland 75%, the draw 18% and Estonia 7%.
Iceland vs Estonia match statistics
- 63% Ball possession 37%
- 19 Total shots 8
- 8 Shots on target 5
- 7 Shots off target 3
- 4 Blocked shots 0
- 13 Shots inside the box 5
- 7 Corners 3
- 13 Fouls 13
- 3 Offsides 0
- 1 Yellow cards 2
- 0 Red cards 0
- 538 Passes 315
- 4 Goalkeeper saves 7
Goals and cards
- 45' Goal A. Guðjohnsen (assist H. Haraldsson) Iceland
- 52' Penalty missed K. Palumets Estonia
- 54' Yellow card K. Mets Estonia
- 64' Goal Maksim Paskotsi (assist R. Peetson) Estonia
- 81' Yellow card R. Peetson Estonia
- 84' Yellow card S. Þórðarson Iceland
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 75%Iceland fair odds 1.34
- 18%Draw fair odds 5.50
- 7%Estonia fair odds 14.04
Most likely score 2-0 (14.5%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.07 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.26 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.80 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 3.02 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 17% | 5.92 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 15.47 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20% | 4.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.25 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 42% | 2.39 |
| Both teams to score: No | 58% | 1.72 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.6
Iceland 5.0 · Estonia 3.6
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 7.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 8.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 9.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 10.5 | 26% | 74% |
Expected cards: 3.7
Iceland 1.7 · Estonia 2.0
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 4.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 5.5 | 18% | 82% |
Expected shots on target: 8.5
Iceland 6.0 · Estonia 2.5
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 7.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 8.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 9.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 10.5 | 24% | 76% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (4392 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–0 14.5%
- 1–0 11.6%
- 3–0 11.1%
- 2–1 8.8%
- 1–1 8.6%
- 3–1 6.7%
- 0–0 6.5%
- 4–0 6.4%
Team news & lineups
Iceland
Bench M. Anderson , B. Willumsson , A. Baldursson , A. Einarsson , K. M. Ingason , H. Magnússon , A. Gunnarsson , Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson , A. Sigurdsson , G. Sigurðsson , Logi Tomasson , Í. Þorvaldsson
Estonia
Bench M. Mannilaan , M. Miller , R. Saarma , J. Saliste , M. Skvortsov , M. Soomets , E. Tõugjas , K. Vallner , A. Tamm , Patrik Kristal , M. Igonen , F. Liivak
Form guide
Iceland at home
1–2–1 in 4 matches
- Scored
- 2.3 per game
- Conceded
- 2.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 4
- Corners
- 5.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.3 per game
Based on 4 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Estonia away
1–2–2 in 5 matches
- Scored
- 1.2 per game
- Conceded
- 1.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 5
- Corners
- 3.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.3 per game
Based on 5 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Iceland vs Estonia head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Iceland v Estonia | 1–1 |
Only 1 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home -0.5 handicap | 75% | 1.34 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 25% | 3.95 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 93% | 1.08 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 98% | 1.02 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 90% | 1.11 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 52% | 1.92 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 25% | 3.95 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 45% | 2.20 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 67% | 1.49 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 40% | 2.48 |
| Home/Away double chance | 82% | 1.22 |
| Home clean sheet | 55% | 1.83 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 12% | 8.08 |
| Away clean sheet | 10% | 9.97 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 2% | 42.26 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 2% | 52.98 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 93% | 1.08 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 7% | 14.04 |