Nairobi United vs APS Bomet result
1–1 Full time
Nairobi United stats & fixtures · APS Bomet stats & fixtures
Nairobi United drew with APS Bomet 1–1 in the FKF Premier League on 25 October 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Nairobi United 41%, the draw 32% and APS Bomet 27%.
Goals and cards
- 29' Goal R. Kipkemoi APS Bomet
- 90+6' Goal Nairobi United
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: Nairobi United or a draw, 73% before kick-off
- 41%Nairobi United fair odds 2.43
- 32%Draw fair odds 3.10
- 27%APS Bomet fair odds 3.76
Most likely score 1-1 (14.6%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Nairobi United to score about 0.3 more. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.
Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Nairobi United
Attack 1.14 · Defence 1.00
Last five: DDWDD, scored 5, conceded 4
Against its rating, a match: −0.1 scored, −0.3 conceded
APS Bomet
Attack 1.00 · Defence 0.96
Last five: LDDWW, scored 5, conceded 3
Against its rating, a match: +0.1 scored, −0.4 conceded
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.14× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Nairobi United’s last five moved its expected goals by −1.4%. In the numbers
- Last 2 meetings: Nairobi United won 0, 1 drawn, APS Bomet won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (15%). Confidence: Low.
Flags and warnings
- Nairobi United is new to this competition: rated from 36 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers
- APS Bomet is new to this competition: rated from 36 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Nairobi United attack scores 14% more than average, against APS Bomet defence, which lets in 4% fewer than average: 1.17 goals (an average side here: 1.06)
- APS Bomet attack scores about the average, against Nairobi United defence, which lets in about the average: 0.93 goals (an average side here: 0.93)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Nairobi United 1.18, APS Bomet 0.90.
Ratings from 36 matches for Nairobi United and 36 for APS Bomet, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- APS Bomet score 1.1 a game — 95th percentile in this competition.
- Nairobi United score 1.4 a game — 84th percentile in this competition.
- APS Bomet have kept 7 clean sheets in 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 86% | 1.16 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% | 1.59 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 2.90 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 6.36 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 6% | 16.66 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 14% | 7.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 37% | 2.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 66% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 84% | 1.19 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 94% | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 42% | 2.35 |
| Both teams to score: No | 58% | 1.74 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 14.6%
- 0–0 13.8%
- 1–0 13.6%
- 0–1 9.8%
- 2–0 8.6%
- 2–1 8.0%
- 1–2 5.9%
- 0–2 5.1%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Nairobi United at home
2–7–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.4 per game
- Conceded
- 1.1 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
29% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
APS Bomet away
4–5–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.1 per game
- Conceded
- 0.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 7 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
18% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Nairobi United vs APS Bomet head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| APS Bomet v Nairobi United | 0–0 | |
| Nairobi United v APS Bomet | 1–2 |
Only 2 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 90% | 1.11 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 82% | 1.22 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 73% | 1.36 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 73% | 1.36 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 69% | 1.44 |
| Home/Away double chance | 68% | 1.48 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 59% | 1.68 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 59% | 1.70 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 41% | 2.43 |
| Home clean sheet | 41% | 2.46 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 33% | 3.04 |
| Away clean sheet | 31% | 3.26 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 27% | 3.76 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 23% | 4.37 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 18% | 5.57 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 11% | 8.76 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 10% | 10.23 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 6% | 15.58 |