Migori Youth vs Mathare United result

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 632 matches, with no market price to check against.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.14× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Migori Youth has had 6 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 0-0 (17%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Migori Youth is new to this competition: rated from 1 matches, starting where new sides usually land. In the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Migori Youth attack scores 9% less than average, against Mathare United defence, which lets in about the average: 0.99 goals (an average side here: 1.07)
• Mathare United attack scores 8% less than average, against Migori Youth defence, which lets in 3% more than average: 0.89 goals (an average side here: 0.94)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Migori Youth 1.00, Mathare United 0.88.

Ratings from 1 matches for Migori Youth and 70 for Mathare United, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Mathare United have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–0 16.8%
2. 1–1 14.9%
3. 1–0 14.0%
4. 0–1 11.9%
5. 2–0 7.6%
6. 2–1 6.7%
7. 0–2 5.9%
8. 1–2 5.8%