AFC Leopards vs Shabana result

Goals and cards

1. 60' Penalty missed K. Odhiambo (assist K. Odhiambo) AFC Leopards

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects AFC Leopards to score about 0.4 more. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 635 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.14× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Shabana’s last five moved its expected goals by −0.9%. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: AFC Leopards won 2, 1 drawn, Shabana won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-0 (15%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• AFC Leopards attack scores 19% more than average, against Shabana defence, which lets in 8% fewer than average: 1.16 goals (an average side here: 1.06)
• Shabana attack scores 6% more than average, against AFC Leopards defence, which lets in 12% fewer than average: 0.87 goals (an average side here: 0.93)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on AFC Leopards 1.19, Shabana 0.83.

Ratings from 70 matches for AFC Leopards and 70 for Shabana, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Both teams have scored in 2 of AFC Leopards’s last 10.
• AFC Leopards score 0.8 a game — 21st percentile in this competition.
• AFC Leopards have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–0 14.8%
2. 0–0 14.4%
3. 1–1 14.4%
4. 0–1 9.4%
5. 2–0 9.4%
6. 2–1 8.1%
7. 1–2 5.3%
8. 0–2 4.6%