GOR Mahia vs Bandari result

Goals and cards

1. 69' Goal A. Onyango GOR Mahia

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects GOR Mahia to score about 0.7 more. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 632 matches, with no market price to check against.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.14× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• GOR Mahia’s last five moved its expected goals by +1.3%. In the numbers
• Bandari’s last five moved its expected goals by −1.0%. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: GOR Mahia won 1, 2 drawn, Bandari won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-0 (20%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• GOR Mahia attack scores 33% more than average, against Bandari defence, which lets in 15% fewer than average: 1.20 goals (an average side here: 1.07)
• Bandari attack scores 15% less than average, against GOR Mahia defence, which lets in 21% fewer than average: 0.63 goals (an average side here: 0.94)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on GOR Mahia 1.28, Bandari 0.58.

Ratings from 70 matches for GOR Mahia and 70 for Bandari, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Bandari score 0.7 a game — 16th percentile in this competition.
• GOR Mahia score 1.1 a game — 63rd percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–0 19.5%
2. 0–0 16.5%
3. 1–1 12.9%
4. 2–0 12.7%
5. 2–1 7.9%
6. 0–1 7.2%
7. 3–0 5.2%
8. 3–1 3.2%