Mali vs Cape Verde Islands match stats & report
3–1 Full time
Mali stats & fixtures · Cape Verde Islands stats & fixtures
Mali beat Cape Verde Islands 3–1 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (Group Stage - 1) on 25 September 2026. Mali had 55% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Mali 57%, the draw 30% and Cape Verde Islands 13%.
Mali vs Cape Verde Islands match statistics
- 55% Ball possession 45%
- 16 Total shots 4
- 7 Shots on target 2
- 6 Shots off target 1
- 3 Blocked shots 1
- 11 Shots inside the box 3
- 4 Corners 1
- 9 Fouls 16
- 1 Offsides 0
- 1 Yellow cards 2
- 0 Red cards 0
- 509 Passes 435
- 1 Goalkeeper saves 4
Goals and cards
- 5' Goal A. Tia (assist L. Sinayoko) Mali
- 10' Goal S. Lopes Cabral Cape Verde Islands
- 39' Goal Dorgeles Nene (assist A. Haidara) Mali
- 47' Yellow card Pico Cape Verde Islands
- 51' Goal Dorgeles Nene (assist K. Doumbia) Mali
- 58' Yellow card Kevin Pina Cape Verde Islands
- 82' Yellow card A. Dieng Mali
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 57%Mali fair odds 1.75
- 30%Draw fair odds 3.37
- 13%Cape Verde Islands fair odds 7.52
Most likely score 1-0 (17.8%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 85% | 1.17 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61% | 1.63 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 3.05 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 6.85 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 5% | 18.45 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 15% | 6.79 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 39% | 2.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 85% | 1.17 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 95% | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 35% | 2.87 |
| Both teams to score: No | 65% | 1.53 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.8
Mali 4.7 · Cape Verde Islands 4.0
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 7.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 8.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 9.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 10.5 | 27% | 73% |
Expected shots on target: 7.0
Mali 3.8 · Cape Verde Islands 3.2
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 5.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 6.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 7.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 8.5 | 27% | 73% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (4364 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–0 17.8%
- 0–0 14.7%
- 2–0 13.8%
- 1–1 12.5%
- 2–1 8.0%
- 3–0 6.7%
- 0–1 6.2%
- 3–1 3.8%
Team news & lineups
Mali
Bench O. Diakité , L. Coulibaly , G. Diarra , A. Dieng , E. Doucouré , M. Doumbia , D. Guindo , Cheick Keita , S. Koita , Modibo Sagnan , M. Samassa
Cape Verde Islands
Bench J. Cabral , Márcio Rosa , Logan Costa , Telmo Arcanjo , Jójó , João Paulo , D. Livramento , José Luís Rocha Tavares , A. Santos , Kelvin Pires , Nuno da Costa , C. J. dos Santos
Form guide
Mali at home
2–2–1 in 5 matches
- Scored
- 1.8 per game
- Conceded
- 1.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 5
- Corners
- 4.8 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.8 per game
22% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 5 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Cape Verde Islands away
0–4–2 in 6 matches
- Scored
- 1.5 per game
- Conceded
- 2.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 6
- Corners
- 3.5 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.0 per game
22% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 6 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home -1.5 handicap | 30% | 3.32 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 57% | 1.75 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 42% | 2.36 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 18% | 5.65 |
| Home clean sheet | 56% | 1.78 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 76% | 1.31 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 87% | 1.15 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 87% | 1.15 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 97% | 1.04 |
| Home/Away double chance | 70% | 1.42 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 70% | 1.43 |
| Away clean sheet | 24% | 4.23 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 43% | 2.33 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 44% | 2.29 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 43% | 2.33 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 13% | 7.52 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 11% | 8.81 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 3% | 28.91 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 2% | 48.44 |