Italy vs Belgium match stats & report
0–2 Full time
Italy lost to Belgium 0–2 in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 1) on 25 September 2026. Italy had 56% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Italy 41%, the draw 27% and Belgium 32%.
Italy vs Belgium match statistics
- 56% Ball possession 44%
- 21 Total shots 19
- 6 Shots on target 8
- 10 Shots off target 5
- 5 Blocked shots 6
- 14 Shots inside the box 11
- 4 Corners 8
- 12 Fouls 11
- 1 Offsides 0
- 2 Yellow cards 4
- 0 Red cards 0
- 590 Passes 464
- 6 Goalkeeper saves 6
Goals and cards
- 20' Goal M. Godts (assist K. De Bruyne) Belgium
- 25' Yellow card N. Raskin Belgium
- 29' Yellow card Diego Moreira Belgium
- 63' Yellow card G. Mancini Italy
- 69' Goal D. Lukebakio (assist Charles De Ketelaere) Belgium
- 80' Yellow card R. Lavia Belgium
- 89' Yellow card M. Fernandez-Pardo Belgium
- 90+1' Yellow card D. Maldini Italy
- 90+4' Yellow card G. Donnarumma Italy
- 90+4' Yellow card Romelu Lukaku Belgium
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 41%Italy fair odds 2.44
- 27%Draw fair odds 3.71
- 32%Belgium fair odds 3.11
Most likely score 1-1 (12.5%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.07 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 2.79 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 19% | 5.30 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 15.86 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18% | 5.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.39 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 81% | 1.23 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| Both teams to score: No | 38% | 2.63 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 9.2
Italy 4.4 · Belgium 4.8
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 8.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 9.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 10.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 11.5 | 23% | 77% |
Expected shots on target: 8.3
Italy 3.8 · Belgium 4.4
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 7.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 8.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 9.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 10.5 | 22% | 78% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (4364 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 12.5%
- 2–1 8.9%
- 1–2 7.8%
- 1–0 6.4%
- 2–0 6.3%
- 0–0 6.3%
- 2–2 6.3%
- 0–1 5.4%
Team news & lineups
Italy
Bench Marco Carnesecchi , M. Zoma , H. Ahanor , I. Doumbia , D. Frattesi , M. Kayode , D. Maldini , R. Mandragora , G. Raspadori , G. Scalvini , Gianluca Scamacca , G. Vicario
Belgium
Bench M. Fernandez-Pardo , M. Keita , R. Lavia , Romelu Lukaku , D. Lukebakio , L. Openda , J. Seys , A. Theate , H. Vanaken , M. Vandevoordt , Z. Debast , J. De Busser
Form guide
Italy at home
3–0–2 in 5 matches
- Scored
- 1.8 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 5
- Corners
- 5.8 per game
- Shots on target
- 6.0 per game
33% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 5 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Belgium away
6–2–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.6 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 5.3 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.9 per game
26% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Italy vs Belgium head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Belgium v Italy | 0–1 | |
| Italy v Belgium | 2–2 | |
| Italy v Belgium | 2–1 | |
| Belgium v Italy | 1–2 |
Only 4 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +0.5 handicap | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 59% | 1.69 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 32% | 3.11 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 78% | 1.27 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 41% | 2.43 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 80% | 1.25 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 22% | 4.65 |
| Home/Away double chance | 73% | 1.37 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 15% | 6.53 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 68% | 1.47 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 68% | 1.47 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 85% | 1.18 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 17% | 5.91 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 48% | 2.09 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 41% | 2.44 |
| Away clean sheet | 20% | 5.01 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 22% | 4.55 |
| Home clean sheet | 24% | 4.10 |