FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda match stats & report
3–2 Full time
FC Lugano stats & fixtures · FK Crvena Zvezda stats & fixtures
FC Lugano beat FK Crvena Zvezda 3–2 in the UEFA Europa Conference League (League Stage - 1) on 15 October 2026. Expected goals finished 1.46–1.07. FK Crvena Zvezda had 60% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave FC Lugano 39%, the draw 28% and FK Crvena Zvezda 33%.
FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda match statistics
- 40% Ball possession 60%
- 1.46 Expected goals (xG) 1.07
- 15 Total shots 18
- 4 Shots on target 5
- 6 Shots off target 10
- 5 Blocked shots 3
- 6 Shots inside the box 6
- 4 Corners 2
- 9 Fouls 9
- 2 Offsides 0
- 2 Yellow cards 2
- 348 Passes 525
- 86% Pass accuracy 91%
- 3 Goalkeeper saves 2
Goals and cards
- 25' Goal Albian Ajeti (assist Renato Steffen) FC Lugano
- 32' Goal Timi Max Elšnik (assist Matej Gaštarov) FK Crvena Zvezda
- 33' Yellow card Vasilije Kostov FK Crvena Zvezda
- 53' Yellow card Renato Steffen FC Lugano
- 55' Yellow card Lars Lukas Mai FC Lugano
- 67' Goal Rade Krunić (assist Muhammed-Cham Saračević) FK Crvena Zvezda
- 82' Yellow card Stefan Gudelj FK Crvena Zvezda
- 84' Goal Dereck Moncada (assist Yanis Cimignani) FC Lugano
- 88' Yellow card Mahmudu Bajo FK Crvena Zvezda
- 89' Yellow card A. Riera FK Crvena Zvezda
- 89' Penalty scored Anto Grgić FC Lugano
- 90+4' Yellow card Matej Gaštarov FK Crvena Zvezda
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 39%FC Lugano fair odds 2.56
- 28%Draw fair odds 3.51
- 33%FK Crvena Zvezda fair odds 3.08
Most likely score 1-1 (13.6%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.91 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 3.32 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 15% | 6.78 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 8% | 12.77 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22% | 4.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 85% | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 58% | 1.74 |
| Both teams to score: No | 42% | 2.36 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.6%
- 2–1 8.7%
- 1–2 7.9%
- 0–0 7.8%
- 1–0 7.6%
- 0–1 6.7%
- 2–0 6.6%
- 2–2 5.7%
Team news & lineups
FC Lugano
Bench Elias Pihlström , Kevin Behrens , Dereck Moncada , Diego Mina , Felix Gebhardt , Damian Kelvin , Ezgjan Alioski , Martim Marques , Beckham Castro , Ahmed Kendouci
FK Crvena Zvezda
Bench Muhammed-Cham Saračević , Savo Radanović , Ivan Guteša , Franklin Tebo , Matej Strika , Miloš Veljković , Dimitrije Šarić , Kristiyan Balov , Ye-geon Kim , Mahmudu Bajo , Marko Arnautović
Form guide
FC Lugano at home
8–1–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.6 per game
- Conceded
- 1.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 6.4 per game
- Shots on target
- 6.2 per game
33% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
FK Crvena Zvezda away
5–0–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.5 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 4.8 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.5 per game
17% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +0.5 handicap | 61% | 1.64 |
| Away clean sheet | 23% | 4.29 |
| Home clean sheet | 27% | 3.72 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 61% | 1.64 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 67% | 1.48 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 85% | 1.18 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 67% | 1.48 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 33% | 3.08 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 81% | 1.24 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 77% | 1.30 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 73% | 1.37 |
| Home/Away double chance | 72% | 1.40 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 39% | 2.56 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 15% | 6.67 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 38% | 2.65 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 19% | 5.14 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 43% | 2.34 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 15% | 6.85 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 18% | 5.55 |