Sudan vs Ethiopia match stats & report
1–0 Full time
Sudan beat Ethiopia 1–0 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (Group Stage - 1) on 25 September 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Sudan 43%, the draw 32% and Ethiopia 24%.
Goals and cards
- 55' Yellow card Mesfin Tafesse Ethiopia
- 81' Yellow card S. Yohannes Ethiopia
- 83' Yellow card G. Panom Ethiopia
- 85' Yellow card Ethiopia
- 86' Goal M. Eisa Sudan
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 43%Sudan fair odds 2.32
- 32%Draw fair odds 3.09
- 24%Ethiopia fair odds 4.08
Most likely score 1-1 (14.8%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 87% | 1.16 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 5.93 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 7% | 15.15 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 13% | 7.42 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 35% | 2.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 93% | 1.07 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 44% | 2.29 |
| Both teams to score: No | 56% | 1.77 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 14.8%
- 0–0 13.5%
- 1–0 13.1%
- 2–0 9.3%
- 0–1 8.7%
- 2–1 8.2%
- 1–2 5.8%
- 0–2 4.6%
Team news & lineups
Sudan
Ethiopia
Bench F. Getahun , S. Habtamu , R. James , R. Selalo , A. Yusuf , B. Waza , B. Belay , H. Gulilat , F. Gebre , D. Hotessa , C. Damtew , B. Fikru
Form guide
Sudan at home
1–1–1 in 3 matches
- Scored
- 0.3 per game
- Conceded
- 0.7 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 3
- Corners
- 4.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 1.0 per game
Based on 3 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Ethiopia away
1–0–2 in 3 matches
- Scored
- 1.3 per game
- Conceded
- 1.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 3
- Corners
- 0.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 0.0 per game
Based on 3 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Sudan vs Ethiopia head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan v Ethiopia | 2–3 |
Only 1 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +0.5 handicap | 57% | 1.76 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 57% | 1.76 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 24% | 4.08 |
| Away clean sheet | 29% | 3.50 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 59% | 1.70 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 80% | 1.25 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 22% | 4.51 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 9% | 11.36 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 91% | 1.10 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 71% | 1.40 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 76% | 1.32 |
| Home/Away double chance | 68% | 1.48 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 76% | 1.32 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 43% | 2.32 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 36% | 2.80 |
| Home clean sheet | 41% | 2.42 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 13% | 7.56 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 20% | 4.94 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 6% | 16.56 |