Nigeria vs Madagascar match stats & report
2–1 Full time
Nigeria stats & fixtures · Madagascar stats & fixtures
Nigeria beat Madagascar 2–1 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (Group Stage - 1) on 25 September 2026. Nigeria had 55% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Nigeria 75%, the draw 17% and Madagascar 8%.
Nigeria vs Madagascar match statistics
- 55% Ball possession 45%
- 22 Total shots 4
- 4 Shots on target 1
- 13 Shots off target 2
- 5 Blocked shots 1
- 18 Shots inside the box 2
- 5 Corners 2
- 14 Fouls 9
- 3 Offsides 1
- 1 Yellow cards 2
- 0 Red cards 0
- 460 Passes 392
- 0 Goalkeeper saves 2
Goals and cards
- 16' Goal E. Kari (assist R. Ponti) Madagascar
- 36' Yellow card G. Dupire Madagascar
- 45+1' Goal G. Ilenikhena (assist A. Iwobi) Nigeria
- 57' Yellow card A. Lookman Nigeria
- 65' Goal M. Usor (assist S. Ajayi) Nigeria
- 90+3' Yellow card N. Fontaine Madagascar
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 75%Nigeria fair odds 1.32
- 17%Draw fair odds 5.99
- 8%Madagascar fair odds 12.76
Most likely score 2-0 (11.9%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.55 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.37 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 24% | 4.17 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 5% | 21.97 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15% | 6.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.80 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| Both teams to score: No | 50% | 1.99 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–0 11.9%
- 3–0 10.2%
- 2–1 9.0%
- 1–0 8.4%
- 1–1 7.9%
- 3–1 7.7%
- 4–0 6.5%
- 4–1 4.9%
Team news & lineups
Nigeria
Bench T. Awoniyi , B. Osayi-Samuel , M. Simon , M. Usor , Tolu Arokodare , E. Fernandez , I. James , Chibuike Nwaiwu , A. Okonkwo , M. Okoye , R. Onyedika , F. Onyeka
Madagascar
Bench R. Ferber , N. Fontaine , Loic Lapoussin , A. Randrianantenaina , W. Caddy
Form guide
Nigeria at home
6–2–0 in 8 matches
- Scored
- 2.3 per game
- Conceded
- 0.6 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 8
- Corners
- 4.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 6.0 per game
11% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 8 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Madagascar away
2–1–3 in 6 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 2.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 6
- Corners
- 1.5 per game
- Shots on target
- 1.0 per game
20% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 6 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Nigeria vs Madagascar head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Madagascar v Nigeria | 2–0 |
Only 1 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 17% | 5.73 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 25% | 4.08 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 25% | 4.08 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 47% | 2.12 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 45% | 2.21 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 72% | 1.38 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 92% | 1.08 |
| Home/Away double chance | 83% | 1.20 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 92% | 1.09 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 75% | 1.32 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 55% | 1.83 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 4% | 24.44 |
| Home clean sheet | 47% | 2.12 |
| Away clean sheet | 8% | 12.94 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 98% | 1.02 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 92% | 1.09 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 8% | 12.76 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 2% | 42.19 |