Mariehamn vs Ilves match stats & report
1–1 Full time
Mariehamn drew with Ilves 1–1 in the Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group - 26) on 10 October 2026. Expected goals finished 1.54–1.95. Mariehamn had 56% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Mariehamn 19%, the draw 22% and Ilves 60%.
Mariehamn vs Ilves match statistics
- 56% Ball possession 44%
- 1.54 Expected goals (xG) 1.95
- 16 Total shots 16
- 2 Shots on target 4
- 12 Shots off target 8
- 2 Blocked shots 4
- 9 Shots inside the box 12
- 5 Corners 3
- 8 Fouls 10
- 2 Offsides 1
- 2 Yellow cards 3
- 0 Red cards 0
- 550 Passes 424
- 3 Goalkeeper saves 1
Goals and cards
- 35' Yellow card Samson Ngulube Mariehamn
- 43' Yellow card S. Väisänen Ilves
- 45+3' Yellow card Goudouss Bamba Ilves
- 66' Yellow card M. Rale Ilves
- 69' Goal T. Hytönen Ilves
- 74' Yellow card Arvid Bergvik Mariehamn
- 84' Goal T. Jakobsen (assist L. Richtner) Mariehamn
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 19%Mariehamn fair odds 5.37
- 22%Draw fair odds 4.61
- 60%Ilves fair odds 1.68
Most likely score 1-2 (10.3%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 95% | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 1.55 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.37 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 24% | 4.15 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 5% | 21.83 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14% | 6.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35% | 2.83 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| Both teams to score: No | 38% | 2.64 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 9.5
Mariehamn 4.6 · Ilves 4.9
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 8.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 9.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 10.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 11.5 | 26% | 74% |
Expected cards: 3.3
Mariehamn 1.8 · Ilves 1.5
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 4.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 5.5 | 12% | 88% |
Expected shots on target: 8.9
Mariehamn 3.1 · Ilves 5.7
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 7.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 8.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 9.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 10.5 | 29% | 71% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (92 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–2 10.3%
- 1–1 9.8%
- 0–2 8.5%
- 1–3 7.2%
- 0–1 6.9%
- 0–3 5.9%
- 2–2 5.5%
- 2–1 5.2%
Team news & lineups
Mariehamn
Bench J. Svedberg , L. Andersson , O. Heino , Rasmus Holmberg, T. Jakobsen , M. Jansson , W. Nuñez , A. Soiniemi , M. Hyvönen
Ilves
Bench S. Baranov , H. Coulibaly , R. Leislahti , T. Miettunen , Y. Raap , Y. Sacko , M. Stjopin
Form guide
Mariehamn at home
3–3–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.8 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 4.8 per game
- Shots on target
- 2.6 per game
12% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Ilves away
2–2–6 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.3 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 2.6 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.4 per game
15% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Mariehamn vs Ilves head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Ilves v Mariehamn | 2–0 | |
| Mariehamn v Ilves | 2–2 | |
| Ilves v Mariehamn | 2–1 | |
| Mariehamn v Ilves | 3–2 | |
| Ilves v Mariehamn | 2–0 | |
| Mariehamn v Ilves | 0–1 |
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away -1.5 handicap | 37% | 2.70 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 36% | 2.75 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 60% | 1.68 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 64% | 1.57 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 81% | 1.23 |
| Away clean sheet | 31% | 3.23 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 81% | 1.23 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 92% | 1.08 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 89% | 1.13 |
| Home/Away double chance | 78% | 1.28 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 69% | 1.45 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 63% | 1.59 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 33% | 3.06 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 40% | 2.48 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 40% | 2.48 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 11% | 8.71 |
| Home clean sheet | 11% | 8.74 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 19% | 5.37 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 8% | 12.84 |